Ketahanan Ekonomi Indonesia dalam Menghadapi Guncangan Global: Analisis Kebijakan Moneter Pasca COVID-19 dan Perang Dagang
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24260/aktiva.v4i1.6481Keywords:
economic resilience, GDP, monetary policy, BI rate, inflation, exchange rate, LDRAbstract
Research Purpose: This study aims to analyze the effect of monetary policy on Indonesia’s economic resilience amid the COVID-19 pandemic and global trade uncertainty. Economic resilience is proxied by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while the independent variables consist of the BI Rate, inflation, the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar, and the Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR).
Method: This study employs a quantitative approach using secondary quarterly time-series data covering the period 2018–2024, obtained from Bank Indonesia, Statistics Indonesia, the Financial Services Authority, and international sources. Multiple linear regression analysis was conducted using EViews.
Research Finding: The results show that the BI Rate has a negative and significant effect on GDP, while LDR and the exchange rate have positive and significant effects. In contrast, inflation has no significant effect on GDP. Simultaneously, the BI Rate, inflation, LDR, and exchange rate significantly affect GDP, with an R-squared value of 92.13%.
Contribution: These findings highlight the importance of monetary policy stability and strengthened banking intermediation in supporting Indonesia’s economic resilience amid global economic uncertainty.
Tujuan Penelitian: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh kebijakan moneter terhadap ketahanan ekonomi Indonesia di tengah tekanan pandemi COVID-19 dan ketidakpastian perdagangan global. Ketahanan ekonomi diproksikan melalui Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB), sedangkan variabel independen meliputi BI Rate, inflasi, nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat, dan Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR).
Metode: Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data sekunder berbentuk time series triwulanan selama periode 2018–2024 yang diperoleh dari Bank Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik, Otoritas Jasa Keuangan, serta sumber internasional. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan regresi linear berganda dengan bantuan EViews.
Temuan Penelitian: Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa BI Rate berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap PDB, sedangkan LDR dan nilai tukar berpengaruh positif dan signifikan. Sementara itu, inflasi tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap PDB. Secara simultan, BI Rate, inflasi, LDR, dan nilai tukar berpengaruh signifikan terhadap PDB dengan nilai R² sebesar 92,13%.
Kontribusi: Temuan ini menunjukkan pentingnya stabilitas kebijakan moneter dan penguatan intermediasi perbankan dalam mendukung ketahanan ekonomi Indonesia.
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