Model Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan Bank Umum Syariah dan Bank Umum Konvensional Menggunakan Model Altman Z-Score, Springate dan Zmijewski Perspektif Ekonomi Islam: Bankruptcy Prediction Analysis Model for Islamic Commercial Banks and Conventional Commercial Banks Using the Altman Z-Score, Springate, and Zmijewski Models: An Islamic Economic Perspective

Widia; Ersi  Sisdianto; IS Susanto

doi:10.24260/jkubs.v5i3.7007

Authors

Widia Yuliyansa Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung
Ersi Sisdianto Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung
IS Susanto Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24260/jkubs.v5i3.7007

Keywords:

financial distress, Altman Z-Score, Springate S-Score, Zmijewski X-Score, Bank Umum Syariah, Bank Konvensional

Abstract

This study aims to analyze and compare the potential for financial distress in Islamic Commercial Banks (ICBs) and conventional commercial banks during the 2021–2025 period using the Altman Z-Score, Springate S-Score, and Zmijewski X-Score models. The study employs a descriptive-comparative quantitative approach using secondary data in the form of annual financial statements of Bank Syariah Indonesia, Bank BTPN Syariah, Bank Mandiri, and Bank Rakyat Indonesia. The five-year observation period resulted in 20 observations. The data were processed using Microsoft Excel through the calculation of financial ratios, scores for each model, classification based on the respective cut-off values, and comparison of results across banks and models. The results show that Bank Syariah Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, and Bank Rakyat Indonesia exhibited relatively consistent indications of distress or potential distress based on the three models. Bank BTPN Syariah showed different results across the models, being classified within the Grey Zone based on the Altman Z-Score, as unhealthy/potentially distressed based on the Springate S-Score, and as non-distressed based on the Zmijewski X-Score. Comparatively, the Altman Z-Score and Springate S-Score produced higher average values for Islamic Commercial Banks than for conventional commercial banks, while the Zmijewski X-Score showed the opposite pattern. These findings indicate that the simultaneous use of multiple prediction models can provide a more comprehensive picture of potential financial distress, as each model has different financial ratio characteristics and sensitivities.

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